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Showing posts from July, 2018

No evidence in the latest opinion polls that Labor is on the way to certain victory

The latest measurements of Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential all are now showing the federal election mood as 49% for the Coalition to 51% to Labor. That is a long way short of justifying the "Labor is on the way to certain victory" mood that dominates my Twitter feed after the weekend by-elections. On the contrary it suggests that while Malcom Turnbull might not be favourite to retain the Prime Ministership he is still well and truly in the contest. If PM Turnbull really believes that company tax cuts are the right thing to do then there is no evidence in the opinion poll results to abandon that policy. Voters, maybe grudgingly, tend to prefer leaders who stick to their guns rather than abandon beliefs when backbenchers start worrying

The peasants are revolting in the Adelaide Hills

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Alexander Downer on the Mayo campaign yesterday: “We are Adelaide Hills people and been in politics here for decades and through multiple elections never come across such abuse. Sharkie supporters have brought such horrible hate to our district. Never seen this before. You must all be new arrivals.”  Last night he said Ms Downer would make a profound contribution to the Federal parliament. “She won’t just be a water carrier, she’ll be one of the great leaders of this country in the years to come,” Mr Downer said.

Sunday Morning Coming Downer with Georgina Downer

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The Guardian   captures the mood as the Mayo votes come in. The Owl reckons this music will suit Georgina Downer in the morning.

Have a kewpie doll along with your Pauline Hanson cardboard cutout

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One Nation employs army of @PaulineHansonOz cardboard cut-outs for #Longman by-election. #auspol https://t.co/id1gYnOrPY pic.twitter.com/0b3LrlSrGF — The Courier-Mail (@couriermail) July 26, 2018 That story surely merits a political singalong.

The shaky case for prosecuting Witness K and his lawyer in the Timor-Leste spying scandal

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John Braithwaite , Australian National University Much of the media commentary on the government prosecution of Witness K and his lawyer Bernard Collaery has focused on government duplicity in suppressing the trial until it had its oil and gas treaty signed with Timor-Leste. But this focus on government hypocrisy has neglected the accountability of the director of public prosecutions, Sarah McNaughton. The prosecution policy of the Commonwealth says: The decision to prosecute must not be influenced by any political advantage or disadvantage to the government. McNaughton’s job is to be the key politically independent actor in the process. She must be a check on state political revenge. This is why the case should of course be in open court, so the public can see how the DPP justifies its independence in the case. Read more: When whistleblowers are prosecuted, it has a chilling effect on press freedom in Australia The reason people are worried ab

Pauline Hanson on a love boat off Belfast

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An update to the Owl's earlier post about Pauline Hanson being in Scotland. The Bolt report says she has now moved on to a ship in the Irish sea off Belfast with her partner as well as her sister and her sister’s husband.

Will Ye No Come Back Again Pauline - singalong with her deserted candidate

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Pauline Hanson has been holidaying in Scotland rather than being out on the Longmans campaign trail. Join in with her deserted candidate and sing:

"Death of a Clown" seems an appropriate singalong for Liberal MHR Craig Kelly

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. @CraigKellyMP : We can't fix things that's happened in the past. It is best if the leaders US and Russia have a good talking relationship, if that means looking over things Russia has done in the past then that's the price we pay. MORE: https://t.co/OZbNyyas5r #newsday pic.twitter.com/qhbGrAVGlz — Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 18, 2018 Anthony Maslin , the Perth father whose three children were killed on MH17 which was shot down in 2014, accused US President Donald Trump of "kissing the arse" of Russian President Vladimir Putin at their Monday summit. Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly responded to the grieving parent by saying Russia's involvement should be "looked over" for the sake of good relations. Death of a Clown will be the appropriate song when Mr Kelly loses preselection.

Greens and the yellow peril

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Australia's Greens, it seems, have joined in the "fear the yellow peril" sentiment. The party's Tasmanian leader, Cassy O’Connor has called on the state government Government to explain why it has backed a 900 per cent increase in visa applications by Chinese business and skilled migrants. As reported by the Hobert Mercury Ms O'Connor believes “the relationship between the Hodgman Liberals and the Chinese Communist government is unhealthily close” . “Will Hodgman is being played by the Chinese Communist party because he only understands the value of something if it’s got a dollar sign in front of it. “He is putting Tasmania’s sovereignty, food security and environment in jeopardy.”

Singalong with big Trev Ruthenberg, the Liberal candidate for the Longman by-election

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LNP candidate in the crucial federal Longman by-election, Trevor Ruthenberg, has admitted he wrongly claimed to be the recipient of a military medal he did not earn. https://t.co/a2qHyl186t — The Courier-Mail (@couriermail) July 16, 2018

If Turnbull is greatly preferred to Shorten as PM, then why is the Coalition still trailing in the opinion polls?

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If Australia had a presidential election, the opinion polls suggest that Malcolm Turnbull would defeat Bill Shorten easily. Newspoll this morning had the Prime Minister 19 percentage points in front of the Opposition Leader when voters were asked "Who do you think would make the better PM?" So why is it that Shorten's Labor lot have for ages now been comfortably in front of Turnbull's Coalition when it comes to voting intention? That's a question the Liberal and National Parties should be thinking about. The Owl reckons, for a start, they should be hiding this pair of vote losers:

Prime Ministers prove the need for compulsory sport in school

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The federal government will lobby states to make sport mandatory in schools in a push to improve children's health and performance in class. Federal Sports Minister Bridget McKenzie said physical activity was not just good for kids' health and wellbeing, with research now linking it to better learning. "Sport is a powerful platform for a whole lot of things, not just for the fun of it (and) I want to use the power of sport whenever I can,'' Senator McKenzie told News Corp on Monday.

The group-think of journalists covering elections and a couple of victories they missed

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For political journalists, writes Walter Shapiro on the US Brookings website , there is safety in a system that places inordinate emphasis on objective measures like polls and campaign coffers. Before the votes are tallied, everything else in campaign stories is subjective. Experienced reporters make arbitrary decisions on who to quote, which anecdotes are relevant, and the “underlying mood of the electorate.” Sometimes their instincts are right, sometimes they become overly wedded to an existing storyline like Hillary Clinton’s inevitability. At a moment when all reporters worry about accusations of bias, it is comforting to say their candidate assessments are based on tangible numbers from polls and fund-raising tallies. This invariably leads to group-think campaign coverage in which only the most iconoclastic reporters are willing to challenge the conventional wisdom about who will win. Sometimes the herd gets it wrong when unexpected candidates run campaigns that go viral and th

Singalong for Mark Latham and Pauline Hanson and the new love affair of Australian politics

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Mark Latham has come to the aid of Pauline Hanson by making robocalls for One Nation in the Queensland by-election seat of Longman And tonight the pair further develop their new political marriage with a joint appearance on Sky News starring Graham Richardson as the best man. It is something worth singing along to.

Malcolm Turnbull is the leader who should be worried about leadership challenges

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Perhaps it is Malcolm Turnbull who should be worried about a leadership challenge after the by-elections not Bill Shorten. The Australian  this morning is certainly stirring the pot by giving prominence to yet another of those attacks by Tony Abbott on climate policy. This time it seems the ex Prime Minister brooding on the backbench has support from the National Party arm of the Coalition who want a $5 billion dose of socialist style government intervention to have three coal fired power stations built. Sorting out that kind of policy nonsense should be enough for PM Turnbull to put any thought of a federal election this year finally out of his mind. The only vote he will have to worry about is within his Liberal Party should he do poorly at the by-elections.