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Showing posts from November, 2016

Even expert forecasters often treat a strong possibility as though it is a certainty.

Why forecasters failed to predict Trump’s victory : Tim Harford in London's Financial Times "The truth is that once Trump had secured the nomination, a Trump presidency was always a strong possibility. The betting markets seemed to recognise this, offering odds of three-to-one a week or so before the poll. Three-to-one shots happen all the time — or at least, about a quarter of the time. A defeat for Hillary Clinton may be far more consequential than a defeat for Manchester City and, therefore, far more shocking but it shouldn’t be any more surprising. Favourites do not always win." "... we have to keep an open mind that more than one outcome is possible. Too many people equated “Clinton is the favourite” with “Clinton will win”. That’s an obvious error, but it’s common. Even expert forecasters often treat a strong possibility as though it is a certainty. This tendency is one reason that dart-throwing chimps give the experts a run for their money. The chimps make

Keeping it in the family: Donald Trump and the New Jerey connection

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Family comes first. That's one thing we now know about president elect Donald Trump. This report by MSNBC's Rachel Maddow s a bottler as she tells of the Trump son in laws' revenge. Watch it here .

What is the name of the Sparkling Wine from East of Paris - up around Epernay?

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By David Farmer I returned to Tasmania in 1970 after 5 years overseas and was by then very interested in wine. Enough to find out what was happening in Tasmania, so father, who knew everyone set up a meeting with the Department of Agriculture in Launceston. I was told viticulture had no future as it was far too cold but a 'crack-pot' was planting a vineyard at Pipers Brook and the location was worth going to see. I did not meet the 'crack-pot' Andrew Pirie but I did meet his brother David who was propagating vine cuttings. I also went to the La Provence vineyard. So naturally I have followed with great interest the growth of the Tasmanian wine industry. The early to late 1980s were ........... years and over a six year period I led the pack that producers two award winners of the professional class of the Australian Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de ........... (C.I.V.C.), Chris Shanahan (1983) and Adrian Marsden Smedley (1986). Thus I know a lot abo

James Halliday as Wine Australia would censor him

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The repressive attack on freedom of speech by Wine Australia has not yet reached the level of stopping wine journalists giving sensible information to consumers. But should a wine maker or retailer dare to quote the words of James Halliday, the country's most famous wine writer, they would face two years in jail. To give you an idea of just how ridiculously draconian Wine Australia's censorship powers are, we reproduce below h ow a recent Halliday column would need to be censored to conform with Wine Australia's law. And if you think you know what the blacked out words are, enter Censored by Wine Australia's competition by sending your guess at what the illegal words are to: richard@politicalowl.com.  There are $50 wine voucher that can be redeemed at glug.com.au for correct and/or witty entries. Click on the column to enlarge it.

Wine Australia chairman's company breaking own law that carries a two year jail term

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They might proudly call it Méthode Tasmanoise but the Hill-Smith family, who purchased Jansz in 1997, seem quite keen to stress a French connection. You will notice, for one thing, that their sparkling is made by the Méthode Tasmanoise rather than the Tasmanian method. But that's a minor dipping of the lid to proper champagne compared with other French references on the Jansz website .  References like this: In 1986, esteemed Champagne house - Louis Roederer partnered with the owners of Heemskerk Wines to produce Tasmania’s first premium vintage sparkling wine. They saw the similarities between the climate here and the famous wine region of their homeland. And this: It could be argued we’re completely mad growing grapes in the wild and unforgivingly cold Tasmanian environment. But there’s méthode to our madness. The climatic conditions of the Jansz vineyard rival the famed French wine region of Champagne. In fact, it was originally with French contribution that Jansz becam

Murdoch's Fox Network gets Trump for President prediction correct

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The US entertainment newspaper Variety reports this morning how Rupert Murdoch's Fox Network 16 years ago predicted the election of Donald Trump as President In an unnervingly prescient episode of the iconic Fox show from March 19, 2000, Bart was transported to the future when Donald Trump ’s presidency had just come to an end. In the episode “Bart to the Future” from Season 11 of the show, a Native American oracle gives Bart visions of the future when he is an adult wearing flip flops, a Hawaiian shirt and sporting a pony tail. It turns out that his sister Lisa has become “the first straight female president” who has inherited “quite a budget crunch from President Trump,” and Bart visits her at the White House. Lisa’s aide, Secretary Milhouse Van Houten, explains that Trump has left the country “broke.” Dan Greaney, who wrote the episode, revealed in an interview in March that the episode was meant to be a “warning to America.” “And that just seemed like the logical last stop

Was it all Hillary's own work?

I have not checked the figures but it looks sensible explanation to me. Turns out it's not a Trump insurgency, but a Clinton collapse. A graph that cuts straight through today's punditry ... pic.twitter.com/x41cyyy2XI — Jonathan Webber (@jonathanwebber) November 9, 2016

The Presidential election result: H.L.Mencken saw it coming

I give up. I do not understand people. I spent the day listening in disbelief as the votes were counted. How can this be?  Perhaps H.L. Mencken got it right when he wrote: “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

A US Presidential election prediction - Clinton 332 electoral college votes to Trump's 206

When it comes to predicting election results I'm still a wisdom of crowds man although with so many media pundits now following the betting markets there is growing evidence of people trying to influence things purely because they have more money than the markets can comfortably cope with. That's why when it comes to this US presidential election I'm using the Iowa Electronic Market as my guide to what the true wisdom is. That's because the IEM, run by the College of Business at the University of Iowa, has a lot of participants but with sensible limits on how much any participant can invest. As I am writing this at 10pm Canberra time the Iowa consensus is that Clinton will end up with 53.7 per cent of the two party (Democrat plus Republican) vote to Trump's 46.3 per cent. That predicts that Clinton will do 1.7 points better than Obama did in 2012 and have a comfortable win. Comfortable but not enough to do better than Obama when it comes to the number of electo

US election note: Going a brighter shade of orange

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We May Have Unlocked the Mystery of Trump's Orange Skin | Mother Jones : Why is Donald Trump so orange? This has been one of the mysteries of the 2016 presidential campaign. The internet is full of speculation, but the consensus is that Trump is an aficionado of bad spray tans or the tanning booth. (The white goggle lines are a dead giveaway.) He hasn't always been this shade. Fifteen years ago, Trump's pallor was almost normal. But something changed about 10 years ago and the internet hasn't fully explained why. There might be a strong clue: Trump's longtime friendship with the former CEO of a tanning company. 'via Blog this'

Win free wine in the Wine Australia censorship contest

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The federal government body Wine Australia has decreed that the glug.com.au website cannot use certain words when trying to give consumers an honest opinion of a wine's merit. Thus thick black lines have started appearing on the small Barossa winery's tasting descriptions. Harem 'Fatima' Barossa Grenache Mataro 2012 Ben got a lot of pleasure from taking the initial building blocks and assembling them on the tasting bench to make the final 'Fatima' blend. The 'Layla' style of Grenache appeals to me and I am thrilled with the result, whereas the 'Fatima' is a deep rich,                                style which will last. Trennert McLaren Vale Grenache Shiraz 2013 Grenache no doubt dates back to the 1830s and was much liked in the days of making fortified wines as it gives heavy crops with high sugar. Smart wine makers have been playing with the rich heritage of old vines left over from this time and at last the winemaking artistry

Please report Peta Credlin sightings

In the Sunday Telegraph column of Peta Credlin this morning were these words of wisdom: When people say to me “there’s no way Trump can happen here”, I tell them they need to go for a drive outside their leafy suburb, find a pub, sit down in the front bar and just listen. The Owl is keen to get evidence that the columnist practices what she preaches. Please send photos of Ms Credlin on a bar stool.

Wine Australia wants to censor small Barossa winery from giving consumers an honest opinion

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Wine Australia is threatening to have a South Australian winemaker/retailer sent to jail for two years if he continues to use words like these on his website: 'This Tasmanian sparkling wine represents far better value than most champagnes.' The offending word is champagne even though it is not mentioned on the label. The wine bureaucrats argue that the very mention of the word on a website or in a printed description of a wine is illegal under legislation to ratify an agreement between Australia and the European Union. By David Farmer All wineries keep records which allows a check that wineries are doing the right thing and one role of Wine Australia is be the inspector or auditor. It is unexpected that they also have another role which is to control the use of particular terms and phrases which are grouped under a banner called  geographical indicators  often shortened to GIs. The Wine Australia email specifically mentions;  Rioja, Champagne, Cote du Rhone (in

Censored by Wine Australia - Surprise Email from Wine Australia Creates Concerns

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Wine Australia is threatening to have a South Australian winemaker/retailer sent to jail for two years if he continues to use words like these on his website: 'This Tasmanian sparkling wine represents far better value than most champagnes.' The offending word is champagne even though it is not mentioned on the label. The wine bureaucrats argue that the very mention of the word on a website or in a printed description of a wine is illegal under legislation to ratify an agreement between Australia and the European Union. By David Farmer If I have learnt one thing after 41 years of selling wine it is that wine is easy to make but very hard to sell. For over four decades I have gone about my business of copy writing which sets out reasons why the wine being described has appeal. Since I have a vast fund of knowledge it is useful for customers to know what I think about each wine. On the 17th August, 2016 an email from the legislative body Wine Australia and t

Did George Negus feed Cathy Freeman his Band Aid?

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The case of the vanished Band Aid has puzzled the army of viewers of last night's Silvia's Italian Kitchen on ABC television. George Negus, the celebrity television political journalist and would-be-Italian, had a starring role preparing the salad. That's the deft hand of George (above) wielding the knife in a scene from the show. Note the flesh coloured Band Aid on his finger. And that's George shortly afterwards cutting into the cauliflower. The Band Aid is not to be seen. Where did it end up? On the plate of fellow guest Cathy Freeman? Or down the throat of Emma Alberici? Clearly Negus the chef was not made aware of the sensible safety advice elsewhere on the ABC website. Food safety is a big issue whether you’re in a commercial kitchen or whipping up a meal at home. Temperature control, cross contamination, reheating are all concerns in a modern cooking environment. What do bandaids have to do with Food Safety … and why Simon is

The Election Polls That Matter - Little data not big

The Election Polls That Matter - The New York Times : "The best campaigns don’t bother with national polls — I’ve come to hate public polling, period. In the 2012 race we focused on a “golden report,” which included 62,000 simulations to determine Mr. Obama’s chances of winning battleground states. It included state tracking polls and nightly calls from volunteers, but no national tracking polls ... “Big data” is a buzzword, but that concept is outdated. Campaigns have entered the era of “little data.” Huge data sets are often less helpful in understanding an electorate than one or two key data points — for instance, what issue is most important to a particular undecided voter. With “little data,” campaigns can have direct, highly personalized conversations with voters both on- and offline, like an ad on a voter’s Facebook page addressing an issue the voter is passionate about. In 2016, we see that online political engagement rates (especially for young voters) are at a historic

The bureaucratic hypocrisy of Wine Australia - do as we say not as our directors do

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Wine Australia is a federal government body supposedly under the control of the Minister for Agriculture and his Assistant Minister.  It is charged with regulating and promoting the local wine industry. The current aims of Wine Australia seem to be kowtowing to the French and supporting local producers who claim to be the fine wine people. The result of both aims is to prevent consumers being given an accurate assessment of the real merits of both imported and local wines. Wine Australia is trying to prevent anyone who sells wine from giving advice about wines from one region compared with wines from another. It is currently threatening my brother David Farmer, who runs a small winery in the Barossa, with a two year jail term because he dared to suggest, for example, that a Wrattonbury cabernet might be as good as one from Coonawrra. You will find the details on David's website HERE . Meanwhile, a member of the Wine Australia board, is committing exactly the same so-called offen