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Showing posts from June, 2016

The power of a ratings downgrade - the UK example

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A peripheral issue in the Australian election campaign is the danger of a downgrade by those dreaded ratings agencies. Listen to some of the political talk and you would think that the danger of the Australian government losing its triple A status would send us to debtors prison because of higher interest rate. I was intrigued this morning to look at what has happened in the UK since the post-Brexit downgrading of its credit rating. From London's Financial Times : A decline in rates across the range! From memory the same pattern of a government being able to borrow at a cheaper rate following a downgrading occurred in the United States. The power of the ratings agencies indeed.

Opinion poll of the week

The NT News does it again. Of COURSE @TheNTNews makes its election prediction using a psychic crocodile, nothing else will do 🐊🔮 pic.twitter.com/jaOSnmq6WS — Josh Butler (@JoshButler) June 28, 2016

The political speculator's diary: Punters losing faith in the pollsters - the Brexit...

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Believe the opinion polls and the punters would have the choices in the UK's Brexit referendum at even money take your pick. For several weeks now there has been nothing between stay and leave in the measurements of public opinion. If anything, leave is ever so slightly in front. But over at the Betfair betting exchange the stay option is the clear favourite. The punters, probably influenced by the media pundits, clearly have no faith in the predictive power of polls. The memory of how wrong the polls were before the last British general election must be strong. From my far away distance it just seems strange to me.

The political speculator's diary: Strange gap between polls and betting markets

The political speculator's diary: Strange gap between polls and betting markets : An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating. Probability of a Coalit...

Xenophon threatens massive retaliation against any Lib-Lab deal against him

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Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Labor is heaving a sigh of relief after Malcolm Turnbull’s announcement that the Liberals will put the Greens below Labor everywhere. In particular, the embattled Labor MP for Batman, David Feeney, under serious threat from the Greens, has been given extra life support, although it remains to be seen on July 2 whether he will survive politically. The Liberals' action gives the ALP an incentive to put extra resources into the area. Greens leader Richard Di Natale said he was still “very confident” about Batman, arguing voters would be “outraged” at the Liberal-Labor deal. Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger had been keeping the ALP on tenterhooks with the prospect the Greens might get Liberal preferences in inner-city seats in Melbourne. But directing preferences to the Greens would have sat badly with Turnbull’s oft-repeated message that a vote for the Greens or other minor players is a vote for instability. It would also h

What a difference a boundary change makes

Announcing $50m Barton Highway Duplication Plan w Peter Hendy MP #EdenMonaro important road investment 🚗🚚🚙 #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/4jZrumbgFe — Julie Bishop (@JulieBishopMP) June 5, 2016 That it pays to live in the right electoral parish was made delightfully clear today to the commuters to Canberra from across the ACT border in Murrumbateman and Yass. After years of pleas for federal help in upgrading the Barton Highway being ignored by politicians, the pump is now well and truly primed. Both Labor and the Coalition are promising the millions necessary. And the reason for the change of heart is easy to understand. For years the Barton Highway led to the electorate of Hume which the Coalition could not lose and Labor not win. Now the Commonwealth Electoral Commission has changed the boundaries. The oad now leads to Eden Monaro - one of the nation's traditional marginal seats. Democracy is a wonderful thing if you live in the right place.

And yet another Green's promise they will never be in a position to deliver

It's time we had a rail link to #Tullamarine airport. Let's get it built. #ausvotes #Greens16 pic.twitter.com/Xnq69WY0Wh — Josh Fergeus (@JoshFergeus) June 5, 2016 Promises are easy to make when you will never be in a government that has to keep them

When it comes to promises it must be great to be Green

A Green version of all care but no responsibility - promises you will never be in a position to fulfil Lost: 30 species of mammals in Aus. At risk: 1700 species. No more: https://t.co/SOUHlaI6sm #WorldEnvironmentDay pic.twitter.com/DzJBSpL8M7 — Queensland Greens (@QldGreens) June 5, 2016 Greens will restore community radio funding cuts. Now let's get Libs to change their mind too! #keepcommunityradio pic.twitter.com/JzCfAKtY1W — Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) June 2, 2016

Election policies - much ado about nothing

I'm not sure which is more annoying: attempts to analyse opinion polls showing markedly different results or pontifications about the future impact of policies that will never pass through the Senate. The Saturday papers are full of both of them. I'll settle once again for quoting Paul Kelly. He gives this common sense advice in The Australian  this morning: As the campaign advances, it becomes doubtful whether Turnbull, if he wins, will be able to legislate in the form he has proposed the corporate tax cuts that are the centrepiece of his election and the heart of his pitch for growth and jobs. Labor, unsurprisingly, refuses to concede any policy mandate for a Turnbull victory. Nor do the Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team or most of the independents. The mandate theory, once applying to an elected government’s program, has been corrupted to mean every party and independent has a mandate against the government. This year’s policy contest may prove a charade, with politicians an

Scomo goes off. Lock up your super

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The Treasurer decales war.

Thoughts from a real insider - the Mark Textor column

It's unusual to find a real insider giving some thoughts on an election campaign but this year we have one. Mark Textor, a researcher into the views of the public for the Liberal Party, is providing a weekly column for the Business Insider website and his latest gives some interesting views on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Now I would not expect pollster Textor to provide us with anything critical of his Liberal paymaster's leader but intelligent readers who make allowance for that will surely learn something. The Turnbull Textor writes of knowing for 30 years does not seem much different than the one I knew and worked with under Kerry Packer the same number of years ago. I agree with the conclusion of today's Business Insider  piece: Ultimately Malcolm’s and the Government’s success will be determined on how effectively he and they embrace his long established values and focuses his considerable talent on making our economy stronger and growing jobs with tax and ot

Wasted words of analysis on the campaign trail

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A couple of reminders this morning that most of the learned analysis of competing policy ideas during this election campaign is a waste of words. First up this from Paul Kelly writing in The Australian : And as if on cue Senator Nick Xenophon, asked on the ABC's AM  if he would support the Coalition's proposed tax cuts, expressed his reservations. Government spending to preserve manufacturing jobs, he argued, would be a better use of scarce resources.