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Showing posts from May, 2016

Australian election debate: I missed the worm

The worm probably would not have moved much from its neutral 50:50 position but I missed it nevertheless. Tonight's debate between leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten was a rather bland and predictable affair. A little audience measurement in the style of the Nine Network's worm as used in previous years might have brightened things up a little. For my part I learned little except that the incumbent and the challenger are respectful opponents. No shades of Trumpism in our campaign. And as for a winner I suppose Bill Shorten gets the nod for no other reason than Opposition Leaders benefit more from mistake-free exposure on television than Prime Ministers. That was the reason I was so adamantly against any leaders debate back in 1987 when I had a say in such matters. Perhaps after tonight's boredom there will be others who, for a different reason, will agree with me.

The media's poll hysteria just keeps getting worse

7 News at 6pm: The exclusive poll result which could change the course of the federal election. #7News pic.twitter.com/ikHUpWNocE — 7 News Sydney (@7NewsSydney) May 27, 2016 So what did the shock poll result actually show? Labor in front 52 to 48. And what's the normal error in polls this far from election day. Around 3.5 to 4 percentage points. (See  When Should You Start Worrying About the Polls? ) So the exclusive result is Labor probably somewhere between 48 and 56. The betting market, meanwhile, has the Coalition at $1.33 and Labor at $3.70

When Should You Start Worrying About the Polls?

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When Should You Start Worrying About the Polls? - The New York Times : Click to enlarge "The chart above shows how much the polling average at each point of the election cycle has differed from the final result. Each gray line represents a presidential election since 1980. The bright green line represents the average difference. At this point – 167 days before the election – a simple polling average has differed from the final result by about nine percentage points. We expect this average to become more meaningful by the week, until the national party conventions temporarily make it less so, as shown in the bump about 100 days before the election. The average difference begins to flatten about two months before the election. The day before the voting, an unadjusted polling average has been about 3.5 points off the final result." 'via Blog this' The same phenomenon can be observed in Australia. The further away from election day an opinion poll is taken th

A proper perspective on those election opinion polls

MARK TEXTOR'S CAMPAIGN DIARY: Foie gras politics and the force-feeding of polls to the public | Business Insider : Data obtained from Emeritus Professor Murray Goot of Macquarie University, show that in the UK, from the dissolution of parliament to election day there was a remarkable 3.5 polls per day published and force fed to voters. The same analysis shows that in Australia in 2013, despite having a significantly smaller voting population, there was an equally remarkable 3.2 polls per day from the proroguing of Parliament to election day. Whilst this number includes some state polling and a flurry of marginal seat polls published towards the end of the campaign, the frequency is still remarkable. 'via Blog this'

Michelle Grattan's campaign diary on a Liberal miscalculation

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The Liberals may have miscalculated Turnbull's electoral appeal Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Finally, Clive Palmer has formally put a full stop to his personal political career, announcing on Monday he won’t be running for the Senate. Palmer United Party (PUP) will still field Senate candidates, including its sole senator, Dio Wang. But if he or any other PUP candidate fluked a Senate seat, it would surely be unlikely Palmer would have influence with them. The bizarre Palmer experiment appears to be well and truly over. The former member for Fairfax spent a fortune to win a slice of national political power, and then spectacularly lost that power. He won’t be missed. The Palmer story has morphed into one about the financial havoc he has wrought. But the PUP vote, especially in the vital state of Queensland where in 2013 the new party polled some 11% of the House of Representatives vote and nearly 10% in the Senate (winning a Senate seat), will be keenly soug

Peter Brent - a twitterer with the courage of his ...

The political speculator's diary: Peter Brent - a twitterer with the courage of his ... : I don't know why Peter Brent's mumble blog no longer appears on the website of The Australian . Perhaps his commentary was too interesting

Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

The political speculator's diary: Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Austra... : I look at the signals of a weakening economy show by ABS figures on low wages growth and the decline in the number of hours being worked. I ...

The political speculator's diary: An alternative view to mine on the UK leaving the ...

The political speculator's diary: An alternative view to mine on the UK leaving the ... : For a different perspective to mine on the prospective outcome of the UK referendum on whether to leave or stay in the European Union:  Why...

Education for political journalists: spend time sitting behind the one way mirror

Reading, watching and listening to journalists today as they reacted to Peter Dutton's comments on the literacy and numeracy of prospective asylum seekers reminded me of one of the most dispiriting periods of my time in politics. I was allowed to sit behind the one way mirror as a skilled researcher chatted with several groups of swinging voters about what they thought of the issues of the day and what influenced their views. For 30 years I had practised my journalistic craft and imagined that my words of wisdom influenced what my readers thought. How ego pricking it was to hear ordinary and often intelligent Australians explain how they turned the page when they saw a headline about electoral politics. Words of wisdom they might have been but influence they had not. And it was not just newspapers that the voters generally ignored. Talking heads on television fared no better. The words of last night's news were not remembered with just an occasional memory of the subject mat