Tuesday, 29 December 2015

Will the polls that were so wrong on the UK election get the referendum on Europe right or wrong?

Will pollsters redeem themselves in 2016? - In the event, the final 2015 election campaign polls from nine polling companies resulted in three giving Labour leads, three offering a dead heat and three suggesting Conservative leads - two registering one-point leads and the other a lead of three points - far below the eventual seven-point gap. ... Polling on the forthcoming European referendum is alive and kicking; and the seeming neck-and-neck support for "Remain" and "Leave" that emerged in December will do little to discourage the commissioning of further polls on the subject. How the polls perform in predicting the result of that referendum, following the scale of their failure in the general election, will be of great significance.

ISIS Influence on Web Prompts Second Thoughts on First Amendment - It is one of the most hallowed precepts in modern constitutional law: Freedom of speech may not be curbed unless it poses a “clear and present danger” — an actual, imminent threat, not the mere advocacy of harmful acts or ideas. But in response to the Islamic State’s success in grooming jihadists over the Internet, some legal scholars are asking whether it is time to reconsider that constitutional line.

Who runs Russia with Putin? First, there has been continuity in terms of the personnel closest to Mr Putin. Real reshuffles are rare, and very few have been evicted from this core group. Second, the heart of the leadership team is made up of allies who served with Mr Putin in the KGB, in 1990s St Petersburg, or both.
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