Judging the political owl's predictions - at least they are proving profitable

My hunch was right about the "no" vote in the Scottish referendum. The "no" vote was stronger than the polls were predicting.
Hence a handy little profit as you will see set out on my The portfolio - the record so far page.
Since I began recording my political predictions by putting my money where my mouth is there has been a profit on turnover of 17.5%.
At the very least it lets readers make a judgment on the value of my political forecasts.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Is Scott Morrison getting ahead of Malcolm Turnbull in the GST debate?

Image
Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Scott Morrison has become a true believer in the cause of raising the GST, determined to drive a major switch in the tax mix. The big question is whether Malcolm Turnbull will end up in the same place as his treasurer. Turnbull is keeping his options open. “Changes to the GST are certainly part of the tax debate and certainly being actively considered by the government,” he said on Friday. If Turnbull agrees with Morrison, all will be well and good between them. On the other hand if Turnbull eventually opts for caution and doesn’t walk down the GST road, or in the shorter term feels Morrison is getting ahead of the game, that would be awkward for the gung-ho minister, who would the need to manage his retreat. Morrison wants a high profile and he seeks the limelight. But that carries risks. There is always that salutary tale from Labor days. Paul Keating was passionate about introducing a broad-based consumption tax. Bob Hawke let
Read more

Prime Minister Scott Morrison under pressure as the question about knowledge of a rape gets embarrassing

Image
Any    day   of   the   week Five words by Scott Morrison that fired up social media commentators today. #NotMyPM pic.twitter.com/YiGTGzLNU5 — M🕯️cr💧ft ...... 🍥 🐒🚶......🧠 (@KaurnaCopia) March 18, 2021 They saw an angry and embarrassed Prime Minister. A politician under considerable pressure. Looking for a way out and not being able to see it. Hansard tells the story of how it came about: Members of Parliament: Staff  Mr ALBANESE (Grayndler—Leader of the Opposition) (14:33): My question is to the Prime Minister. Thirty days ago, the Prime Minister told this House that he asked his former chief of staff, one of the few people he's ever shown empathy for, to verify what his office knew about the reported sexual assault of Brittany Higgins only metres from where he works. Mr Gaetjens reported his findings on the Prime Minister's sports rorts within two weeks. Why is this report, about the Prime Minister's staff, taking so long, and will the Prime Minister release this
Read more

Remembering that Labor only lost last time because of Bill Shorten

A quote for the day from The Australian  ' Former Queensland Liberal Party vice-president and online pollster Graham Young, who runs Brisbane-based conservative think tank the Australian Institute for Progress, says Morrison was always going to struggle to be returned, nixing any suggestion the government had a lock on the election when it was riding higher in Newspoll. “ The only reason they won last time was that Bill Shorten was overconfident, unpopular and they got over the line in a few seats in Queensland,” Young says. “Anyone who thinks it’s a lay-down misere because Albanese is hopeless or whatever is not thinking clearly.”'
Read more