Thursday, 4 September 2014

Backing the No vote again in Scotland

A couple of recent opinion polls have the gap between No and Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum narrowing a little but with the margin still around six points it does not look close to me. Perhaps that's because I'm Australian and used to the No vote being the referendum winner except when all the major parties are urging people to vote Yes.
To me the $1.30 on offer about a majority for No is akin to stealing money.
I'm going in again with another $200 of my own hard earned.
Details of my bets on political events are at the portfolio page of my speculator's diary.
The Owl's election indicator has this assessment of the probabilities based on current market prices:


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