Sunday, 7 September 2014

A verdict on Abbott’s first year – still a likely winner

I have dutifully read any number of those first year report cards on the Abbott government and find myself largely unmoved from my belief that governments invariably get a second term. Sure there is the problem of saying a promise or three must be broken, and that has upset some people, but the Senate looks like ensuring that the planned nasties like the $7 health co-payment do not actually happen. Something that could have happened but didn’t is unlikely to be worrying people by the end of year two.
To my mind the market is giving a better guide to how things really stand, and what will happen when the electorate next votes, than the opinion polls. The Owl’s election indicator puts the election probabilities as follows:
7-09-2014 australianindicator
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