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Showing posts from September, 2014

A parliamentary speech that actually says something

I am old enough to remember the times when speeches in parliament actually meant something. I even learned shorthand so I could write down and then report what MPs said back in those days because there were no transcripts issued in advance. Reporting what was said was an indication of what was meant, what a member actually believed. Alas, no more. Parliamentary speeches these days are a repetition of prepared and sanitised arguments. Why bother to report such a boring parliamentary debate? So what a delight it was to an old fellow yesterday when the Labor MP for Fremantle, Melissa Parke, actually had the courage to break the shackles of party orthodoxy on the question of military intervention in the Middle East and combating terrorsim at home. Ms PARKE  (Fremantle) (18:24): Last week on Twitter a person called for my execution for treason because I had questioned the government’s rapid escalation of our new involvement in Iraq from a purely humanitarian mission to one where we app

Polar sea ice trends continue in different directions and other news and views for Tuesday 23 September

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Scientists debate polar sea-ice opposites  – “Arctic sea ice has passed its minimum summer extent, say polar experts meeting in London. The cover on 17 September dipped to 5.01 million sq km, and has risen slightly since then, suggesting the autumn re-freeze has now taken hold. This year’s minimum is fractionally smaller than last year (5.10 million sq km), making summer 2014 the sixth lowest in the modern satellite record. The Antarctic, in contrast, continues its winter growth. It is still a few weeks away from reaching its maximum, which will continue the record-setting trend of recent years. Ice extent surrounding the White Continent has just topped 20 million sq km. The marine cover at both poles is the subject of discussion at a major UK Royal Society conference taking place this week. The fight of their lives  – The White House wants the Kurds to help save Iraq from ISIS. The Kurds may be more interested in breaking away. The Limits to Fighting the Islamic State  – Gareth E

The glaringly obvious guide to the next crash and other news and views for Monday 22 September

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The glaringly obvious guide to the next crash  – What sell signals will future generations wonder at our ability to ignore, asks James Mackintosh Fukushima cleanup going painfully slow  – “Three and a half years after Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power station spewed massive amounts of radioactive materials into the air and water, decontamination work in Fukushima Prefecture has yet to draw to an end. The government initially hoped to complete the decontamination by the end of last March, but the process continues to lag far behind, prompting the government to push back the goal by three years to 2017.” The dangerous revival of nationalism  – Separatist movements have a pull for voters even in a borderless world of bits and bytes Broadway’s ‘The Lion King’ Becomes Top Grossing Title of All Time  – “Disney’s “The Lion King” has claimed a new crown: Top box office title in any medium. The Associated Press did the math and discovered the 17-year-old

No El Niño but getting close to a record hot year for the planet anyhow

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Of the world’s five warmest years on record – 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013 – all but 2013 began during a mature El Niño event. Hence the interest always paid to this measure reflecting ocean water temperatures in the Pacific and to the speculation that 2014 might be another record high temperature one when the climate model makers earlier in the year were  putting the chances of an El Niño at 80% . That probability has now retreated a little with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s  latest El Niño watch  being in the neutral range. Somewhat surprisingly the warm temperatures have kept coming without an  El Niño  influence. According to the latest report  of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.75°C (1.35°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F), topping the previous record set in 1998. The global land surface tempe

The problems of backing rebels – the US experience

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When The U.S. Backs Rebels, It Doesn’t Often Go As Planned  – “As the U.S. steps up arms and training, Syria’s “moderate” rebels are joining a long line of resistance movements the Americans have backed over the decades, from Angola to Afghanistan. … U.S. support has consistently given rebels a boost in the short term, sometimes leading to outright victory. But battlefield success is never the end of the story. Unanticipated consequences often play out years later, casting the mission in a very different light.” The invasion of corporate news  – “The lines between journalism and PR are rapidly becoming blurred as business interests bypass traditional media to get their message across.” Dogs can be pessimists too  – “Dogs generally seem to be cheerful, happy-go-lucky characters, so you might expect that most would have an optimistic outlook on life.In fact some dogs are distinctly more pessimistic than others, research from the University of Sydney shows.” Hell in the Hot Zone  

The dangers of sacking ministerial Senators

The Parliament House gossip for weeks now has had Australian Minister for Defence, Senator the Honourable David Johnston, head of the short-list of Cabinet ministers ready for sacking. As someone who avoids the big house on the hill like the plague I can shed no guidance as to the inspiration for the stories but the but the campaign against the Senator certainly got a kick along this morning. Retired Major-General Jim Molan, who was asked to act as the Minister’s adviser on next year’s Defence White Paper, after he helped devise the Government’s border protection policy,  told Channel 10 he quit because he realised it would not be feasible to continue in the role. “The reason for this being not feasible had nothing to do with the professionalism of the Department of Defence, of the [Australian Defence Force], of the chief of the Defence Force or the secretary of the Department,” he said. When it was suggested Mr Molan was narrowing his criticism down to Mr Johnston, he said: “Well

Strong measures to limit carbon emissions might actually lead to faster growth

Could Fighting Global Warming Be Cheap and Free?  – Paul Krugman writes: “I’ve just been reading two new reports on the economics of fighting climate change: a big study by a blue-ribbon international group, the New Climate Economy Project, and a working paper from the International Monetary Fund. Both claim that strong measures to limit carbon emissions would have hardly any negative effect on economic growth, and might actually lead to faster growth. This may sound too good to be true, but it isn’t. These are serious, careful analyses.” Forget the national debt. The new budget threat is climate change  – “Shaun Donovan gave his first speech as White House budget director Friday, and he didn’t even mention that Washington obsession of recent years, the $17.8 trillion national debt.No, in the run-up to next week’s United Nations climate summit in New York, the Obama administration is focused like a laser on a different threat to federal finances and the U.S. economy: the consequences

Judging the political owl's predictions - at least they are proving profitable

My hunch was right about the "no" vote in the Scottish referendum. The "no" vote was stronger than the polls were predicting. Hence a handy little profit as you will see set out on my  The portfolio - the record so far   page. Since I began recording my political predictions by putting my money where my mouth is there has been a profit on turnover of 17.5%. At the very least it lets readers make a judgment on the value of my political forecasts.

Dealing with returning Islamic fighters and other news and views for Thursday 18 September

Islamic State: Germany Struggles to Deal with Returning Fighters  – “Hundreds of radical Islamists from Germany have headed to Syria and Iraq to fight for Islamic State. Many have since returned home. Now the country’s court system is gearing up for the coming legal battles — and facing myriad challenges.” U.S. Falling Into the Islamic State’s Trap  – “There are many reasons the U.S. shouldn’t go to war with the Islamic State — and the best may be that it’s exactly what they want us to do.” On the Necessary Execution of a Prince  – “Was the recent arrest, trial and execution of North Korea’s number two politician just another sign of the madness of the regime? Or was it perhaps a sign to the people that things could actually change for the better and that no one – none of ‘them’ – was necessarily too powerful to evade punishment?” The US Has Been the World’s Sole Superpower for the Last 13 Years—Why Hasn’t It Done Anything Good?  – “Now, across a vast and growing swath of the plane

Replaying the 30s in slow motion and other news and views for Wednesday 17 September

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Replaying the 30s in Slow Motion  – Paul Krugman writes – “We’re still nowhere like the 30s politically. But you do start to wonder whether self-congratulation over the political handling of Depression 2.0 will eventually look as foolish as the economic optimism of a few years ago.” After Reinfeldt, Sweden moves into uncertainty  – “Centre-right leader will be missed by his European Union allies.” Scots’ support for independence lags on eve of referendum  – “On the eve of Scotland’s historic referendum, polls showed support for staying in the United Kingdom just ahead of backing for independence but tens of thousands of citizens were still agonizing over which way to vote on Thursday.” Scientists Find ‘Direct Link’ Between Earthquakes And Process Used For Oil And Gas Drilling NASA: Hottest August Globally Since Records Began In 1880 Thousands of Gazans fleeing to Europe via tunnels, traffickers and boats  – ‘It’s better to die at sea than to die of despair and frustration in G

The winning chances of the Abbott government edge upward

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Take notice of the opinion polls and you would think that the Abbott government is going backwards in public support. Look at the evaluation of the markets and you would find the opposite with a modest increase over the last few weeks in the probability of the Coalition being re-elected. In Victoria the market’s verdict is tending to coincide with the polls with Labor a firming favourite. Check out the Owl’s indicators on other events  HERE .

A “No” vote in Scotland the favoured prediction

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On the eve of the vote in Scotland, a “No” vote has shortened again as the favoured outcome.

Germany’s move to sun and wind power and other news and views for Sunday 14 September

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The small German island of Heligoland, a popular tourist destination, is undergoing dramatic change as the wind industry takes over. Video Credit By Erik Olsen on Publish Date September 13, 2014. Sun and Wind Alter German Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind   -“Of all the developed nations, few have pushed harder than Germany to find a solution to global warming. And towering symbols of that drive are appearing in the middle of the North Sea. They are wind turbines, standing as far as 60 miles from the mainland, stretching as high as 60-story buildings and costing up to $30 million apiece. On some of these giant machines, a single blade roughly equals the wingspan of the largest airliner in the sky, the Airbus A380. By year’s end, scores of new turbines will be sending low-emission electricity to German cities hundreds of miles to the south.” The journalists who never sleep  - “‘Robot writers’ that can interpret data and generate stories are starting to appear in certain business