Wednesday, 4 June 2014

Tempted by UKIP at Newark and lured by a NO vote in Scotland

Remarkably few opinion polls to give the punters a guide in this week's Newark by-election where the Conservatives are a firm favourite to retain the seat. That rich political maverick, and former Tory party Treasurer, Lord Ashcroft did provide this guide at the weekend along with his regular nationwide survey.




With the Conservatives leading UKIP by 15 percentage points and with Labour and Liberal Democrats in the also-ran category it is no surprise that the market based Owl Election Indicator has the Conservatives strongly favoured. For my part I'm not prepared to take the short price because of as nagging suspicion that potential UKIP voters are understated in the same way as that Pauline Hansen lot once were in Australia. Haven't got the courage to put my money where my mouth is either.








When it comes to the Scottish referendum, where the campaign is now officially underway, my leaning towards the NO vote just keeps getting stronger. The only referendum form I know is from Australia where the record shows that when any major party opposes a proposition a majority do not vote in favour.





I notice as much as $1.30 available on the NO vote. Will do me for 120 units to win a potential 40.
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