Tuesday, 11 February 2014

Composite leading indicators continue to point to an improving economic outlook in most advanced economies

A hopeful pointer this morning from the OECD’s Composite leading indicators (CLIs). The indicators, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to show signs of an improving economic outlook in most advanced economies.
2014-02-11_oecdgrowth
The CLIs continue to point to economic growth firming in the United States and the United Kingdom and to growth above trend in Japan.
In the Euro Area as a whole, and in France and Italy, the CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum. In Germany, the CLI shows signs of firming growth.
In the emerging economies, the CLIs point to growth around trend in China, Brazil and Russia, and to growth below trend in India.
2014-02-11_oecdaustralia
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
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