Wednesday, 10 July 2013

Election diary Wednesday 10 July 2013 - The Labor climb goes on

And the climb goes on. The gap between Coalition and Labor as measured on our election indicator continues to narrow.



A 30.7% probability is the highest Labor has been all year. The indicator started January at 24.8% and by the end of that month reached its previous 2013 high-point of 26.9%.

It is an amazing turn around.

It’s never too late. A short extract from my behind-the-paywall contribution today to Crikey. (And if you are not a subscriber you should be. I modestly think we at Crikey are the consistently best of the alternative Australian media.)

Good to see a variation on the leadership change story this morning. From the op-ed page of The Australian:


Now wouldn’t that make it a truly spectacular election campaign? Malcolm Turnbull replaces Tony Abbott on the day the election is called!
A word of warning to Rudd: remember 1983. It is never too late to change leaders. Go sooner rather than later.
Power to the people but not yet. Old habits die hard. Despite all the talk about giving the power to the ordinary party members as part of the great Rudd reforms, Labor today decided to let the Federal Executive make all or any of the difficult pre-selection decisions.

And don't worry about those rules about having to be a party member for a year or two to be a candidate. That's out the window too which must make a loyal rank-and-file candidate who misses out puzzled about the reason to bother joining and attending those often boring branch meetings.

Clearly change does not mean an end to hypocrisy.

The sharp edge of campaigning. From the PM's official Instagram site:



We are really getting down to the serious matters now.

A champion candidate. Palmer United Party has endorsed current boxing world champion Will Tomlinson for the Victorian House of Representatives seat of Gippsland. While that is unlikely to be of much significance in the final scheme of things, Clive Palmer is doing his chances of picking up a Senate seat somewhere a lot of good. With 47 parties now eligible to stand candidates the last Senator in each state will be determined by a virtual lottery. Having Reps candidates helps mobilise an election day workforce to hand out those last minute how-to-vote card reminders and that may prove vital.

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