Sunday, 30 June 2013

Election diary - Sunday 30 June 2013 - Struggling with handling the "women" question


The poll and market changes. The first of the major pollsters in print this morning with Galaxy showing the Coalition lead reduced by four percentage points. That's a smaller improvement than Labor would have been hoping for.
The market responded by moving strongly towards Labor.
At 10pm tonight the probabilities were Coalition 78.2%, Labor 21.8%.

Handling women. The political parties are feeling their way in trying to handle female matters in this campaign. Tony Abbott on television this morning was flanked by his daughters and Kevin Rudd has decided to give the nation three more women as cabinet ministers. And as if to keep fears about how Tony Abbott would handle questions of abortion, Health Minister Tanya Plibersek announced that RU 486 would be put onto the pharmaceutical benefits scheme thus substantially reducing the price.

Saturday, 29 June 2013

Election diary Saturday 29 June - Happy families with a touch of footy

(Click to enlarge this and other images)
Not covering it like a horse race. There's no way Melbourne's Herald Sun is going to be accused of that. No. This election business is far more important than that.
That's right. It's as important as Aussie rules football. And Prime Minister Kevin Rudd well knows it. For the Hun's family photo he hugged a Sherrin along with his grand daughter.

Rudd shows his sense of humour. I cannot believe that any journalist has taken seriously the idea that Kevin Rudd is considering taking Tony Abbott with him to the G20 conference of world leaders in October. The idea that the Australian election will not be held until after the Moscow talk-fest is just ridiculous.

And down goes another one. The retirements keep coming from the ranks of Labor Party ministers. This time it's Greg Combet announcing that he will not be contesting his seat of Charlton. What is it they say about sinking ships?

Sticking to his guns. Kevin Rudd is rightly sticking to his guns in pointing out the absurdity of the Coalition's turn-back-the-boats policy.

Bringing back John Howard. The Victorian Liberal Party brought out John Howard for the launch of its federal campaign today. An odd choice to have a loser in the prime position which says something about what the tacticians think of Tony bbott's populArity.

Labor's expected poll bounce arrives

It didn't take long for the opinion poll driven election coverage to begin. The Fairfax tabloids were off and running this morning with an instant verdict on the Labor leadership change.
Bounces for Labor of 6%, 11% and 13% in the three seats polled before and after the change.
Overall that was pretty close to the 10% improvement that the former Labor pollster Rod Cameron predicted on the ABC's Lateline on Thursday night.

Election diary Friday 28 June 2013 - A good start for Kevin Rudd on boat people

There's nothing like taking your biggest negative head on and Kevin Rudd did just that with his comments today on how to deal with the arrival of boat people from Indonesia. Clearly and firmly the Prime Minister pointed out the dangers that would follow from the Coalition's policy of turning back the boats when the Indonesians will not accept them. It is quite fine for Tony Abbott to say it but what will actually happen if he tries to do it?

Friday, 28 June 2013

How the Australian Opinion Polls have moved

Or perhaps that headline should be how they have not moved. From the start of this year the Liberal-National Coalition has been comfortably in front on every pollster's measure of public opinion.
(Click to enlarge)
When you look at a table like that it is easy to understand why the Labor Party this week changed its leader.

The Rudd led Labor revival

For the Crikey website, (behind a paywall but they are the kind people who pay me my living wage), I produce a weekly alternative to opinion poll watching in the form of an election indicator based on what the markets are predicting the election result will be. These predictions have proved remarkably accurate over the years, not only in Australia but in other countries as well.
Here's the pattern of the year so far which shows that Labor, having changed its leader, is now back to where it was in February.

Predicting the election outcome

Over the years my much-cherished readers have shown considerable aptitude at picking the trend of public opinion. Every bit as accurate as the findings of opinion pollsters, it seems to me. So here we go again.
This time your judgment is required to predict what the Essential Report to be published in Crikey on Monday will show and, more importantly, what the outcome will be when the election is finally held. Make your predictions via the form below.



Getting the Owl active

An Australian election upon us and the change in the Labor leadership means there might even be a contest.
It's time for the politicalowl to get active again.
Will publish a few thoughts here every night until election day.

Saturday, 1 June 2013

Don't let the facts get in the way

The gossip has been considerable on the internet gossip sites. What is the status of the relationship between the PM and the first Bloke?
Well here's the picture from tonight's Geelong home game:
It looks lie they are together to me.