Friday, 20 August 2010

Not much in the campaign

I'm not certain about the importance of election campaigns in determining who wins elections. To me the evidence is not clear that anything said or done in the 30 plus days after an Australian federal election is called actually influences the votes. But because I'm someone who used to play the game of the strategist I got into the habit of judging who won each and every day even though it might well have been meaningless.
For this campaign my judgment is that the campaigns were largely irrelevant. I cannot think, for example, of one political party advertisement that would have influenced one person to change their mind. And the operatives on both sides have been equally skilled in presenting their candidate in a favourable light for the television news bulletins.
On my score chart I have the Coalition winning on more days with Labor marginally ahead overall.
The markets, as measured by the Crikey Election Indicator, have also not moved much during the course of this campaign. Just before midnight they had the probability of a Labor victory at 63%
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