Tuesday, 20 July 2010

Who won the news cycle? A shocker for Abbott


To begin with a Quote for the day from the latest Paul Krugman New York Times column:
” … the only real puzzle here is the persistence of the pundit delusion, the belief that the stuff of daily political reporting — who won the news cycle, who had the snappiest comeback — actually matters. This delusion is, of course, most prevalent among pundits themselves, but it’s also widespread among political operatives. And I’d argue that susceptibility to the pundit delusion is part of the …  administration’s problem.”
Having built up my importance in that way, herewith an analysis of who won the news cycle yesterday.
It was essentially no contest really. When a politician spends the whole day talking about something he would rather avoid, like Tony Abbott did yesterday, it does not matter how skillful you are with words — you cannot win. When you show the lack of skill with words that Tony Abbott did yesterday then things on the campaign trail get about as bad as they can get. It was an easy winning day for Labor not because the Government did not well but because the Opposition did so poorly- 7 to 3 on my scorecard with the progressive lead after three days now five points.
20-07-2010 campaignlead
The radio and television interviews by the Opposition Leader were, in a word, terrible. When industrial relations is your team’s biggest negative you need a form of words that comes out pat every time. And every member of the team, not just the leader, has to be saying exactly the same thing. Perhaps Tony Abbott will learn. If he doesn’t this election is as good as over with the only possible saviour being the underdog effect whereby come polling day people hesitate about voting Labor because they don’t want a government they actually have some reservations about winning too easily.
The market is steadily pointing towards a Labor victory. The Crikey Election Indicator, based not on how people say they would vote today but on which party people think will win come polling day, puts the probability of a Labor victory at 77%.

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