Last week, November 3, News Ltd’s poll (Newspoll) claimed that Coalition support had jumped 7% to 48% while ALP support had dropped 7% to 52% in two-party preferred terms.
Even at face value, such a drop in support was extremely unlikely.
On Thursday November 5, when the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating showed an increase in consumer confidence (up 2.5pts to 128.0), it was clear to those who follow polls and politics that the Newspoll was wrong — a “rogue” poll. An increase in consumer confidence is almost invariably positive for the government.
On Friday November 6, the Morgan Poll showed two-party preferred support for the ALP virtually unchanged (up 0.5% to 61%) and then today’s Nielsen poll also showed support for the ALP virtually unchanged (down 1% to 56%).
The evidence was clear. Yet the publication of News Ltd’s poll (Newspoll) in the first place had already had a major impact. The evidence showing the “error” of Newspoll was literally ignored by media discussion (e.g. theon ABC TV and the impact of the “rogue” poll was allowed to run unabated).
Pollsters and those who publish the polls have a responsibility to report the facts and the truth.