Thursday, 6 August 2009

Labor improves on the Crikey/Owl indicator

The Crikey/Owl election indicator, which gives a probability of victory based on what the markets say, has moved in Labor’s direction.

When it comes to assessing who Kevin Rudd is most likely to face as an opponent the Crikey Indicator is uncertain. It still has Malcolm Turnbull as the most likely Leader of the Opposition come election day but the probability of him being so is less than 40%. Joe Hockey, who keeps saying he is a non-starter, is given a 28% chance.

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