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Showing posts from November, 2004

Another Triumph for the Glug Election Indicator

The Glug Election Indicator performed creditably in picking the United States election result. It had George W. Bush a 56.6% chance of remaining President which translates in to a prediction of a 50.3% national vote for Bush. That was lower than the 51.1% shown by the current actual figures but substantially closer than the 49.4% prediction of Messrs Zogby and co. If you are wondering how a 56.6% chance of winning becomes a predicted vote of 50.3%, we assume a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1.5 percentage points. That is the standard deviation which the University of Iowa found applied to its Iowa Electronic Markets on political elections. (See  So Who is the Underdog ) in our Election Diary archive. The Glug indicator, incidentally, predicted that the Liberal-National Coalition in Australia was a 77.8% chance of winning. That assumed a two party preferred vote of 51.2%. The final figure was 52.7%.

Another Crushing Defeat for Journalists and the Opinion Poll Industry .

There have been three predictions of cliff hanger election results by political journalists and opinion pollsters in English speaking democracies this year. And three clear cut wins by incumbent governments have made the pollsters and the other pundits look less reliable than astrologers. Consider this wonderful document posted on the web site of Zogby International – the much quoted American polling guru. Released:  November 02, 2004 Our Call Zogby International's 2004 Predictions (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST) 2004 Presidential Election Electoral Votes Bush 213 Kerry 311 Too close to call Nevada (5) Too close to call Colorado (5) Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1% The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2 (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST) ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL 901 Broad Street, Utica, New York 13501 USA 1600 K Street, Suite 600, Washington,DC, 20006 USA NY phone 3